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The Front Range Forecast: Real cold and some snow arrive

In Brief:

We are on the western edge of a massive cold air outbreak that is hitting the U.S. Some snow.

The Forecast Discussion:

A line between Longmont and Lyons will be the western edge of very cold air that is spreading over the nation (Figure 5). The first shot of cold air hits Thursday keeping temperatures below freezing for a day and a half and light snow on the lower elevations, healthy snow up in the mountains (Figure 1, Figure 2-4).

The low lands should see an inch or less of snow while the mountains get up to 6 inches (Figure 2-4). Even though Friday sees a brief warm up, Thursday, and Saturday through Monday will be very cold.  We "might" see a high on Sunday between 0F and 8F (models don't predict extremes well- Figure 5).

This is a fairly extended period of very cold air with a shot of snow Thursday, and Sat/Sun/Mon AM's.  If I can narrow down snow amounts better, I'll post it here, but it is a different kind of storm (multiple weak pulses in very cold air).

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Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherundreground.com
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Figure 2: the 10:1 snowfall forecast for the next 48 hours (through Thursday) from the GFS and weather5280.com
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Figure 3: the 10:1 snowfall forecast for the next 48 hours (through Thursday) from the NAM and weather5280.com
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Figure 4: the snowfall forecast from weather5280.com and Matt Makens through Thursday.
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Figure 5: the 2 meter above ground temperature anomaly (departure from normal) for Sunday noon from the GFS and weather5280.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

Over the next 10 days, the low lands (except north of Fort Collins) still won't see much snow, but the mountains will pick up an important 1 -2 feet (Figure 6). After that we warm up to near normal and return to mostly dry conditions (Figure 1).

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Figure 6: the 10:1 snowfall forecast for the next 10 days from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

41°F

UV Index
2 Low
Pressure
30.21 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
26 °F
Humidity
54%
Wind
NE 2.1 mph
Gust
5.2 mph
Wind Chill
41 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
1 PM
41°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
2 PM
41°F
Intermittent clouds
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3 PM
42°F
Partly sunny
Today
4 PM
40°F
Partly sunny
Today
5 PM
37°F
Partly sunny
Today
6 PM
34°F
Partly cloudy
Today
7 PM
30°F
Clear
Today
8 PM
27°F
Clear
Today
9 PM
23°F
Clear
Today
10 PM
20°F
Clear
Today
11 PM
19°F
Clear
Tomorrow
12 AM
17°F
Clear

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ flurries

Friday

42 °F

Not as cold; mostly cloudy this morning followed by increasing amounts of sun this afternoon; a warmup is on the way


Clear

Friday Night

12 °F

Clear


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

49 °F

Mostly cloudy


Partly cloudy

Saturday Night

27 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

58 °F

Mostly cloudy; a nice day for outdoor activities


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

37 °F

Partly to mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Monday

66 °F

Decreasing clouds and warmer


Mostly clear

Monday Night

35 °F

Mostly clear


Partly sunny

Tuesday

65 °F

Mild with sunshine and some clouds


Mostly clear

Tuesday Night

31 °F

Clear to partly cloudy; breezy late


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:46 AM
Sunset
5:43 PM

Based on AccuWeather data