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Tue Update The Front Range Forecast: More cold fronts and rain

In Brief:

More cool air brings in showers Thursday and Friday.

Tuesday update:

Wednesday will have seasonable temperatures until a couple of cool fronts invade the state cooling us and brining rain. It looks like about 1/2 inch of rain will fall over the region with some thunderstorm activity Thursday night.  Fall is trying to establish itself!

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Figure 2 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com

End Tuesday update.

Sunday update:

The cold front has arrived dropping temperatures around 10-15 degrees over the last week's average high.  There is a brief of time, this afternoon, that the first wave of thunderstorms may become severe enough to drop damaging hail.  The atmosphere will stabilize later this afternoon with rain showers off and on through the night through Monday afternoon. 

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Figure 1 update: the severe weather outlook from the SPC for Sunday (Day 1).

End Sunday update.

Forecast Discussion:

Hold on for one more day, Saturday will be hot before an evening cold front arrives (dashed blue line, Figure 1). This is driven by a trough digging into our high pressure bubble that has influenced the area for much of the last few weeks (Figure 2). Unusually high atmospheric moisture arrives with the front/trough (green shading in Figure 3) yielding a few thunderstorms and showers (Figure 4).

The good shower chances continue through Monday evening with maybe a quarter inch to a third inch of water for most areas (Figure 1).

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Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
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Figure 2: the Sunday night 500 mb forecast from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
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Figure 3: the Sunday night precipitation forecast from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
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Figure 4: the Sunday night precipitation forecast from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

Some shower chances and a slow warm up continues Tuesday and beyond.  Most areas get less than 3/4tth inch over the next 5 days (Figure 5).

Tropical Update:

Figure 6 shows the next 5 day forecast for major hurricane Lee out in the Atlantic. Most forecasts keep this storm out to sea, curving north then northeast over the next 10+ days. People on the northern east coast should still keep an eye on it.  This should reach a category 5 storm if it hasn't already. Winds are 150mph now, they only need to get to 157mph.

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Figure 5: The 5 day precipitation forecast from weather5280.com and the GFS.
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Figure 6: the NHC forecast for Lee.

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

75°F

UV Index
2 Low
Pressure
30.1 Rising
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
52 °F
Humidity
45%
Wind
NNW 4.9 mph
Gust
10.4 mph
Wind Chill
75 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
5 PM
91°F
Thunderstorms
Today
6 PM
89°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
7 PM
86°F
Partly sunny w/ t-storms
Today
8 PM
82°F
Partly sunny w/ t-storms
Today
9 PM
78°F
Mostly clear
Today
10 PM
73°F
Mostly clear
Today
11 PM
71°F
Clear
Tomorrow
12 AM
69°F
Clear
Tomorrow
1 AM
67°F
Clear
Tomorrow
2 AM
65°F
Clear
Tomorrow
3 AM
65°F
Clear
Tomorrow
4 AM
65°F
Partly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Friday

92 °F

Turning cloudy with a thunderstorm in parts of the area this afternoon


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Friday Night

63 °F

A thunderstorm in spots early this evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Saturday

92 °F

Partly sunny with a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Saturday Night

61 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Sunday

93 °F

Variable cloudiness with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

62 °F

Increasing cloudiness


Mostly cloudy

Monday

93 °F

Mostly cloudy


Mostly clear

Monday Night

61 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

94 °F

Intervals of clouds and sun


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday Night

62 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:46 AM
Sunset
8:27 PM

Based on AccuWeather data