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Tue Update The Front Range Forecast: More cold fronts and rain

In Brief:

More cool air brings in showers Thursday and Friday.

Tuesday update:

Wednesday will have seasonable temperatures until a couple of cool fronts invade the state cooling us and brining rain. It looks like about 1/2 inch of rain will fall over the region with some thunderstorm activity Thursday night.  Fall is trying to establish itself!

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Figure 2 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com

End Tuesday update.

Sunday update:

The cold front has arrived dropping temperatures around 10-15 degrees over the last week's average high.  There is a brief of time, this afternoon, that the first wave of thunderstorms may become severe enough to drop damaging hail.  The atmosphere will stabilize later this afternoon with rain showers off and on through the night through Monday afternoon. 

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Figure 1 update: the severe weather outlook from the SPC for Sunday (Day 1).

End Sunday update.

Forecast Discussion:

Hold on for one more day, Saturday will be hot before an evening cold front arrives (dashed blue line, Figure 1). This is driven by a trough digging into our high pressure bubble that has influenced the area for much of the last few weeks (Figure 2). Unusually high atmospheric moisture arrives with the front/trough (green shading in Figure 3) yielding a few thunderstorms and showers (Figure 4).

The good shower chances continue through Monday evening with maybe a quarter inch to a third inch of water for most areas (Figure 1).

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Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
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Figure 2: the Sunday night 500 mb forecast from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
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Figure 3: the Sunday night precipitation forecast from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
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Figure 4: the Sunday night precipitation forecast from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

Some shower chances and a slow warm up continues Tuesday and beyond.  Most areas get less than 3/4tth inch over the next 5 days (Figure 5).

Tropical Update:

Figure 6 shows the next 5 day forecast for major hurricane Lee out in the Atlantic. Most forecasts keep this storm out to sea, curving north then northeast over the next 10+ days. People on the northern east coast should still keep an eye on it.  This should reach a category 5 storm if it hasn't already. Winds are 150mph now, they only need to get to 157mph.

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Figure 5: The 5 day precipitation forecast from weather5280.com and the GFS.
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Figure 6: the NHC forecast for Lee.

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Clear

Clear

62°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.11 Steady
Visibility
6 miles
Dewpoint
51 °F
Humidity
65%
Wind
SW 1.6 mph
Gust
3.3 mph
Wind Chill
62 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
2 AM
63°F
Clear
Today
3 AM
62°F
Clear
Today
4 AM
60°F
Clear
Today
5 AM
59°F
Clear
Today
6 AM
58°F
Sunny
Today
7 AM
62°F
Sunny
Today
8 AM
68°F
Sunny
Today
9 AM
74°F
Sunny
Today
10 AM
78°F
Sunny
Today
11 AM
82°F
Mostly sunny
Today
12 PM
85°F
Mostly sunny
Today
1 PM
88°F
Mostly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Thursday

92 °F

Not as hot; a shower in spots late this morning, turning breezy this afternoon with a thunderstorm in spots


Mostly clear

Thursday Night

58 °F

A shower in spots late this evening; otherwise, clear to partly cloudy and not as warm


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Friday

88 °F

Sunny to partly cloudy with a thunderstorm in the afternoon; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Friday Night

58 °F

A thunderstorm in spots early in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Saturday

86 °F

Clouds and breaks of sun with a thunderstorm in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Saturday Night

58 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Sunday

97 °F

Partly sunny


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

59 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Monday

93 °F

Mainly cloudy


Mostly clear

Monday Night

60 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:40 AM
Sunset
8:31 PM

Based on AccuWeather data