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1/4 9pm Update: Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – January 4-5, 2020

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

The only thing interesting over the next 10 days in the weather will be the (modest) temperature swings. We heat up to maybe 60F or higher Saturday. A cold front brings in a tiny chance of rain/snow late Sunday night (but don't bank on it) and a cool down. We warm up again pretty far above normal for Tuesday/Wednesday before a cold front cools us to a bit below normal for the end of the week and weekend. I might have to take up BASE jumping for some excitement.

1/4 9pm Update:

No real change is needed in the forecast today. There is a small chance of rain/snow on the horizon for Thursday PM/ Friday AM. We'll watch that here.

Also - happy Perihelion Day! Today the Earth is closer to the sun than any other day of the year (and we are furthest from the sun July 5th, so that's NOT the reason for the seasons).

And I did get my outside decorations taken down - while wearing shorts today. Some stakes were frozen in the ground still. It took work to get them out.

End 1/4 9pm update.

Forecast Discussion:

We are high and dry with high pressure still in place (Figure 1). All the excitement is out on the east coast. A bit of down slope flow and a ridge aloft will warm us to 15-20 F above normal Saturday (Figure 2). As I said before, I'm taking my decorations down (even if we're suppose to wait until after the National Western Stock Show concludes - that would be January 27th).

The Longer Range Forecast:

Our next trough (passing us early Monday AM - Figure 4) kicks a dry cool front down across the region on Sunday (Figure 3). Over the next 10 days- the mountains keep getting the western flow moisture train with 1.5 feet of snow in the higher elevations (Figure 5 - the GFS). The GEM ha a similar story, just more snow in the northwestern mountains (Figure 6). Longmont doesn't get much to any precipitation.

Figure 7 shows the next 10 days with our tiny precipitation chance late Sunday in a pink box. The red boxes on temperatures are much above normal. The green boxes are near normal. The blue boxes are somewhat below normal. There just isn't much of a variation on tap.

The even longer range forecast:

NOAA also tries to look out in 3 month chunks at overall trends. I have not found these to be very accurate, but they are fun to wonder at. Figure 8 shows us having very close to normal temperatures overall while Figure 9 hints at a bit more moisture than normal. Remember, Weather Bell says much more moisture and much below normal for the end of Winter.

Figure 1: the current surface analysis map from Friday PM and the weatherunderground.com
Figure 2 : the surface temperature anomaly (departure from normal) from the GFS for Saturday evening from weather5280.com.
Figure 3: The forecast surface map for Sunday morning from NCEP.
Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for early Monday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 5: 10:1 (snow to liquid) snowfall totals through the next 10 days from the GFS and weather5280com for Colorado made Friday afternoon.
Figure 6: 10:1 (snow to liquid) snowfall totals through the next 10 days from the GEM and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado made Friday afternoon.
Figure 7: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 8: The temperature outlook for January to March 2020 from NOAA.
Figure 9: The precipitation outlook for January to March 2020 from NOAA.

Current Weather

Clear

Clear

62°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.07 Falling
Visibility
9 miles
Dewpoint
48 °F
Humidity
61%
Wind
WSW 1.7 mph
Gust
2.8 mph
Wind Chill
62 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
3 AM
62°F
Clear
Today
4 AM
60°F
Clear
Today
5 AM
59°F
Clear
Today
6 AM
58°F
Sunny
Today
7 AM
62°F
Sunny
Today
8 AM
66°F
Mostly sunny
Today
9 AM
73°F
Mostly sunny
Today
10 AM
79°F
Mostly sunny
Today
11 AM
83°F
Mostly sunny
Today
12 PM
86°F
Mostly sunny
Today
1 PM
88°F
Mostly sunny
Today
2 PM
86°F
Partly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Thursday

92 °F

Not as hot; a shower in spots late in the morning, turning breezy in the afternoon with a thunderstorm in spots


Mostly clear

Thursday Night

58 °F

Clear to partly cloudy and not as warm


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Friday

88 °F

Sunny to partly cloudy with a thunderstorm this afternoon; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Friday Night

58 °F

A thunderstorm in spots early this evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Saturday

84 °F

Clouds and breaks of sun with a thunderstorm in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Saturday Night

59 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Sunday

94 °F

Partly sunny


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

59 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Monday

93 °F

Mainly cloudy


Mostly clear

Monday Night

63 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:40 AM
Sunset
8:31 PM

Based on AccuWeather data