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Friday Update: Longmont Weather Forecast: Very warm again, then a chance of snow

Figure2u3_11192021
Figure 2 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

In Brief:

Mild weather continues with tiny chances of precipitation.

Friday update:

Things remain very quiet and mild (for this point in Fall).  The chilliest day in the future will be Thanksgiving day itself, when temperatures return to normal briefly (Figure 2 update). There are very small chances of showers this weekend, the night before Thanksgiving and the following weekend.  We will probably set the record for the latest measurable snow after all.  When those small chances occur, the northern mountains will pick up some nice snow.  Enjoy the pleasant weather unless there are showers on Saturday!

Figure2u3_11192021
Figure 2 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

End Friday update:

Tuesday Update:

The front is blasting down the Front Range currently and a bit of moisture and uplift will occur in the mountains. Figure 1 update shows the expected snow overnight. Look close, it is hard to see. We "may" have a coating or dusting in the morning, but probably not.  We are still in the running for a record late snow and record period of snow-less weather in Denver. It WILL be pretty chilly for the next.

Figure1u_11162021
Figure 1 update: the HRRR total snowfall forecast through 9am Wednesday from weather5280.com

End Tuesday update.

 

Forecast Discussion:

A giant ridge over the west keeps us very warm through Tuesday (Figure 1).  A strong cold front arrives Tuesday around sunset, temperatures plummet and precipitation chances rise (see the Longer Range Forecast below).

Figure1_11132021
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast from weatherunderground.com for Longmont, CO.

The Longer Range Forecast:

A pretty strong trough sweeps the nation and brings down some cold Canadian air on Wednesday (Figure 2). At present, the area of snow this storm will kick up is very limited in coverage (Figure 3).  The precipitation will be confined to the northern Colorado mountains and a few spots on the Plains (Figure 4). The snow in the mountains might be pretty impressive but with only a dusting apparent at lower elevations (Figure 5).  The latest recorded measurable snow in Denver is November 21 which occurred in 1934. Looking further out, we might just break this record if this storm does not hit the airport.

 

Figure2_11132021
Figure 2: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Wednesday morning from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure3_11132021
Figure 3: the 6 hour averaged precipitation around Wednesday morning from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure4_11132021
Figure 4: the 10 day precipitation total from the GFS and weather5280.com
Figure5_11132021
Figure 5: the 10 day (10:1 ratio) total snowfall forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

14°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.76 Rising
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
8 °F
Humidity
77%
Wind
ENE 2.2 mph
Gust
3.8 mph
Wind Chill
14 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
5 PM
16°F
Flurries
Today
6 PM
16°F
Flurries
Today
7 PM
16°F
Cloudy
Today
8 PM
15°F
Cloudy
Today
9 PM
14°F
Snow
Today
10 PM
13°F
Snow
Today
11 PM
12°F
Snow
Tomorrow
12 AM
12°F
Snow
Tomorrow
1 AM
11°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
10°F
Snow
Tomorrow
3 AM
10°F
Snow
Tomorrow
4 AM
8°F
Snow

7 Day Forecast

Flurries

Tuesday

16 °F

Cloudy and much colder with snow flurries; watch for slippery spots early


Snow

Tuesday Night

6 °F

Breezy this evening; frigid with snow and flurries at times, accumulating 1-3 inches; untreated surfaces will be slippery


Snow

Wednesday

14 °F

Occasional morning snow, accumulating 3-6 inches; otherwise, cloudy and cold; storm total snowfall 4-8"; expect slippery travel early, then some improvement


Mostly cloudy w/ flurries

Wednesday Night

-7 °F

An evening flurry or two; otherwise, partly cloudy and frigid; extreme cold can be dangerous for outdoor activities


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

29 °F

Cold with intervals of clouds and sunshine; extreme cold can be dangerous for outdoor activities


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

16 °F

Becoming cloudy


Partly sunny

Friday

48 °F

Milder with partial sunshine; an afternoon shower in the area


Snow

Friday Night

23 °F

Snow and flurries at times in the evening; otherwise, low clouds


Dreary

Saturday

32 °F

Colder with low clouds; a snow shower around in the afternoon


Dreary

Saturday Night

14 °F

Low clouds


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:59 AM
Sunset
5:31 PM

Based on AccuWeather data