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Friday Update: Longmont Weather Forecast: Very warm again, then a chance of snow

Figure2u3_11192021
Figure 2 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

In Brief:

Mild weather continues with tiny chances of precipitation.

Friday update:

Things remain very quiet and mild (for this point in Fall).  The chilliest day in the future will be Thanksgiving day itself, when temperatures return to normal briefly (Figure 2 update). There are very small chances of showers this weekend, the night before Thanksgiving and the following weekend.  We will probably set the record for the latest measurable snow after all.  When those small chances occur, the northern mountains will pick up some nice snow.  Enjoy the pleasant weather unless there are showers on Saturday!

Figure2u3_11192021
Figure 2 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

End Friday update:

Tuesday Update:

The front is blasting down the Front Range currently and a bit of moisture and uplift will occur in the mountains. Figure 1 update shows the expected snow overnight. Look close, it is hard to see. We "may" have a coating or dusting in the morning, but probably not.  We are still in the running for a record late snow and record period of snow-less weather in Denver. It WILL be pretty chilly for the next.

Figure1u_11162021
Figure 1 update: the HRRR total snowfall forecast through 9am Wednesday from weather5280.com

End Tuesday update.

 

Forecast Discussion:

A giant ridge over the west keeps us very warm through Tuesday (Figure 1).  A strong cold front arrives Tuesday around sunset, temperatures plummet and precipitation chances rise (see the Longer Range Forecast below).

Figure1_11132021
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast from weatherunderground.com for Longmont, CO.

The Longer Range Forecast:

A pretty strong trough sweeps the nation and brings down some cold Canadian air on Wednesday (Figure 2). At present, the area of snow this storm will kick up is very limited in coverage (Figure 3).  The precipitation will be confined to the northern Colorado mountains and a few spots on the Plains (Figure 4). The snow in the mountains might be pretty impressive but with only a dusting apparent at lower elevations (Figure 5).  The latest recorded measurable snow in Denver is November 21 which occurred in 1934. Looking further out, we might just break this record if this storm does not hit the airport.

 

Figure2_11132021
Figure 2: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Wednesday morning from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure3_11132021
Figure 3: the 6 hour averaged precipitation around Wednesday morning from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure4_11132021
Figure 4: the 10 day precipitation total from the GFS and weather5280.com
Figure5_11132021
Figure 5: the 10 day (10:1 ratio) total snowfall forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Drizzle

Drizzle

42°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.17 Steady
Visibility
2 miles
Dewpoint
40 °F
Humidity
94%
Wind
NE 3.2 mph
Gust
5.9 mph
Wind Chill
41 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
8 PM
43°F
Rain
Today
9 PM
43°F
Cloudy
Today
10 PM
43°F
Rain
Today
11 PM
43°F
Rain
Tomorrow
12 AM
43°F
Rain
Tomorrow
1 AM
43°F
Rain
Tomorrow
2 AM
43°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
3 AM
43°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
4 AM
43°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
5 AM
43°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
6 AM
43°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
7 AM
45°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Showers

Friday

46 °F

A thick cloud cover and chilly with a few showers


Mostly cloudy w/ showers

Friday Night

43 °F

Rain and drizzle this evening; otherwise, low clouds breaking


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

74 °F

Warmer with variable cloudiness


Clear

Saturday Night

41 °F

Clear


Partly sunny

Sunday

80 °F

Very warm with sunshine mixing with some clouds; breezy in the afternoon; elevated fire risk due to gusty winds and low humidity


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

46 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Monday

64 °F

Turning cloudy, windy and cooler; a shower in spots in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Monday Night

39 °F

Cloudy in the evening, then partly cloudy late


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

66 °F

Sun and clouds


Mostly clear

Tuesday Night

39 °F

Mainly clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:08 AM
Sunset
7:49 PM

Based on AccuWeather data