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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – December 4, 2017

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

I'll update this in the morning when some data has come in on what our cold front has done.  In short, again, it will be cold (upper 30's for a high), windy at times, and cloudy early on today. Very little precipitation will happen outside of the mountains.

Morning Update:

The surface wind field Monday AM shows the real wind push (and cooler air) were just approaching Longmont before 8am (Figure 1). There are a few snow showers up on the Wyoming border. Figure 2 is the frontal analysis and the earlier wind shift line and pressure drop is far down into New Mexico.  These things can come in waves.

The forecast map for just a few hours later (Figure 3) has the front even further south and some precipitation up mainly in southern Wyoming.  Yes, we missed out again.

Figure 1: MyRadar app for iOS image from 7:45am Monday.

Figure 2: The Weather Channel current surface map from Monday AM

Figure 3: Surface map forecast for midday Monday.

Longer range forecast:

A northerly jet flow will keep us cool (near seasonable/normal temperatures) with another weak front Tuesday and again on Thursday (Figure 4).  The GFS shows a small chance of precipitation in northern Colorado on Thursday.  Don't too excited yet though.

We do return to around 60F on the weekend as the ridge moves east!

Figure 4: 500mb upper air forecast map for Thursday PM from the GFS.

Figure 4: surface analysis forecast map for Thursday PM from the GFS.

Current Weather

Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

65°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.77 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
20 °F
Humidity
17%
Wind
SW 8.3 mph
Gust
17.7 mph
Wind Chill
65 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
11 PM
55°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
52°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
51°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
2 AM
49°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
3 AM
48°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
4 AM
46°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
5 AM
45°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
6 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
7 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
8 AM
46°F
Partly sunny
Tomorrow
9 AM
47°F
Partly sunny
Tomorrow
10 AM
53°F
Partly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ showers

Sunday

67 °F

A passing shower or two this morning; otherwise, mild with a blend of sun and clouds


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

44 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Monday

66 °F

Nice and warm with periods of clouds and sunshine


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

25 °F

Partly cloudy and colder


Partly sunny

Tuesday

55 °F

Cooler with partial sunshine


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

30 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday

63 °F

Rather cloudy and mild; breezy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

30 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

50 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

28 °F

Mostly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
7:09 AM
Sunset
5:20 PM

Based on AccuWeather data