In Brief:
Very hot dry weather will hold into the weekend when a subtle cool down and return of moisture begins.
Forecast Discussion:
Dry air flowing in from the west will keep us very warm and dry (near record high temperatures - Figure 1). Also in this figure you can see the dying tropical system Elida that is the first of a stream of storms that will pump moisture into the western U.S. The green arrows show the meager beginnings of this flow. Winds are from the west (Figure 2) with the giant high pressure system parked due south of us.
The models didn't come out today, so I can't show the pulses of daily smoke that will pour over the Rockies from the Pine Gulch fire north of Grand Junction or the Grizzly Creek fire that still has I70 closed as this post goes up. The small amount of moisture present in the state will form afternoon cumulus that will look orange in the distance due to the smoke.
The Longer Range Forecast:
Through Saturday, we have high temperatures will hover just below 100F (Figure 3). Rainfall in the state over the next five days will be extremely light and spotty (Figure 4). As new tropical storms keep forming off the western coast of Mexico, moisture levels will increase in the U.S. West. By Sunday (Figure 5) the ridge center will move to the Grand Canyon area giving us northwest flow. That will allow ripples in the flow to create afternoon storms with this new moisture and a cool down to near normal levels for this time of year. The southern mountains will benefit by this moisture more than the northern counties at first (Figure 6).
